Introduction
Often what we want is not what we get. Inverse modelling
(based on
estimation
theory) is a
versatile statistical technique that can be used to estimate
quantities that are directly or indirectly related to the
measured quantity. For instance, absorption features in Earth's
electromagnetic spectrum can be used to estimate concentration
quantities of atmospheric trace gases that can subsequently
be used to estimate surface flux estimates. Here, we highlight
a few ongoing and new projects.
Current Research
Multi-Species Correlations
Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of two
or more species represent additional information for improving
surface flux estimates through coupled inverse analyses. These
correlations can arise from having similar spatial and temporal
flux distributions, from chemical mass balance, or from atmospheric
transport processes. We have recently demonstrated this methodology
using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO over the
western Pacific. We developed methodologies to quantify
CO2-CO correlations and subsequently used them in a
coupled inverse analysis [1] and showed they improve
a posteriori flux estimates of CO2. We are extending
this analysis to other datasets and other carbon compounds.
Model Parameter Estimation
Conventionally, chemical inverse modelling has focused on estimating
surface fluxes of gases and particles [2,3,4]. At least for
biospheric fluxes such estimates provides little additional
fundamental understanding. Using biospheric models that include a
small set of
"tunable" physical parameters we are developing statistical
tools to identify which physical parameters can be estimated
reliably from a particular dataset.
Use of Satellite Data Satellite observations of the tropospheric
composition are beginning to revolutionise the way we think about
Earth's climate [5,6,7]. Satellite instruments literally produce
Gigabytes of data/day. One approach to synthesising this large
amount of data is to statistically combine them with a global
3-D chemistry transport model using a
Kalman
filter. Together with Manuel Gloor (Dept of Geography,
University of Leeds) we are developing numerically efficient tools
with which to analyse large satellite datasets.
[1]
Palmer, P. I., J. Geophys.
Res., in review, 2006. (PDF)
[2]
Heald, C. L., J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2004JD005185, 2004.
(PDF)
[3]
Jones, D. B. A., J. Geophys. Res.,
doi:10.1029/2003JD003702, 2003.
(PDF)
[4]
Shim, C., J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2004JD005629, 2005.
(PDF)
[5]
Heald, C. L., J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2002JD003082, 2003.
(PDF)
[6]
Abbot, D. S., Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2003GL017336, 2003.
(PDF).
Journal cover.
[7]
Martin, R. V., J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2003JD003453, 2003.
(PDF)