School of GeoSciences

Global Change Ecology: Mathew Williams



Myrgiotis, V., M. Williams, R. M. Rees, and C. F. E. Topp (in press). Estimating the soil N2O emission intensity of croplands in northwest Europe. Biogeosciences.

López-Blanco, E. J-F. Exbrayat, M. Lund, T. R. Christensen, M.l P. Tamstorf, D. Slevin, G. Hugelius, A. A. Bloom, and M. Williams (in press). Evaluation of terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a data-assimilation system. Earth System Dynamics.

White, E.D., M. Rigby, M. F. Lunt, A. L. Ganesan, A. J. Manning, S. O'Doherty, A. R. Stavert, K. M. Stanley, M. Williams, T. L. Smallman, E. Comyn-Platt, P. Levy, M. Ramonet, and P. I. Palmer (in press). Quantifying the UK's Carbon Dioxide Flux: An atmospheric inverse modelling approach using a regional measurement network. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics .

Lansø, A.S., T. L. Smallman, J. H. Christensen, M. Williams, K. Pilegaard, L.-L. Sørensen, and C. Geels (in press). Simulating the atmospheric CO2 concentration across the heterogeneous landscape of Denmark using a coupled atmosphere-biosphere mesoscale model system. Biogeosciences .

Exbrayat, J.-F., A. A. Bloom, N. Carvalhais, R. Fischer, A. Huth, N. MacBean & M. Williams (in press). Understanding the land carbon cycle with space data: current status and prospects. Surveys in Geophysics


Exbrayat, J.-F., Smallman, T. L., Bloom, A. A., Hutley, L. B. & Williams, M (2018). Inverse determination of the influence of fire on vegetation carbon turnover in the pantropics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 32: 1776-1789 10.1029/2018GB005925.

López-Blanco, E, M Lund, T R Christensen, M P Tamstorf, T L Smallman, D Slevin, A Westergaard-Nielsen, B U Hansen, J Abermann and M Williams (2018), Plant Traits are Key Determinants in Buffering the Meteorological Sensitivity of Net Carbon Exchanges of Arctic Tundra, J. Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, in press.

Exbrayat, J. F., A. A. Bloom, P. Falloon, A. Ito, T. L. Smallman, and M. Williams (2018), Reliability Ensemble Averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9: 153-165.

V. Myrgiotis, R. M. Rees, C. F. E. Topp and M. Williams (2018) Improving model prediction of soil N2O emissions through Bayesian calibration Science of the Total Environment 624: 1467-1477.

Corona-Núñez, R. O., J. Campo, and M. Williams (2018), Aboveground carbon storage in tropical dry forest plots in Oaxaca, Mexico, Forest Ecology and Management, 409: 202-214, doi:

Estop-Aragonés, C., M. D.A. Cooper, J. P. Fisher, A Thierry, M.H. Garnett, D.J. Charman, J.B. Murton, G. K. Phoenix , R. Treharne, N. K. Sanderson, C. R. Burn, S.V. Kokelj, S.A. Wolfe, A. G. Lewkowicz, M. Williams, I. P. Hartley (2018) Limited release of previously-frozen C and increased new peat formation after thaw in permafrost peatlands. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 118: 115-129.

Myrgiotis,V, R. M. Rees, C. F. E. Topp, and M. Williams (2018) A Systematic Approach to Identifying Key Parameters and Processes in Agroecosystem Models Ecological Modelling 368: 344-356

Keane, J.B., P. Ineson, H.W. Vallack, E. Blei, M. Bentley, S. Howarth, N.P. McNamara, R.L. Rowe, M.Williams and S. Toet (2018) Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy crop oilseed rape (Brassica napus); the role of photosynthetically active radiation in diurnal N2O flux variation Global Change Biology Bioenergy 10, 306–319, doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12491

McNicol, I., Ryan, C. R., Dexter, K., Ball, S, & Williams, M (2018) Aboveground carbon storage and its links to forest structure, tree species diversity and floristic composition in south-eastern Tanzania, Ecosystems 21: 740–754.


Exbrayat, J-F, Y. Liu and M Williams. (2017) Impact of deforestation and climate on the Amazon Basin's above-ground biomass during 1993-2012 click here Scientific Reports, 7: 15615

Butler, E. E., Datta, A., Flores-Moreno, H., Chen, M., Wythers, K. R., Fazayeli, F., Banerjee, A., Atkin, O. K., Kattge, J., Amiaud, B., Blonder, B., Boenisch, G., Bond-Lamberty, B., Brown, K. A., Byun, C., Campetella, G., Cerabolini, B. E. L., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Craine, J. M., Craven, D., de Vries, F. T., Diaz, S., Domingues, T. F., Forey, E., Gonzalez, A., Gross, N., Han, W., Hattingh, W. N., Hickler, T., Jansen, S., Kramer, K., Kraft, N. J. B., Kurokawa, H., Laughlin, D. C., Meir, P., Minden, V., Niinemets, l., Onoda, Y., Penuelas, J., Read, Q., Valladares, F., Sack, L., Schamp, B., Soudzilovskaia, N. A., Spasojevic, M. J., Sosinski, E. E., Thornton, P. E., van Bodegom, P. M., Williams, M., Wirth, C., and Reich, P. B. (2017) Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions, Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, 114(51): E10937-E10946.

Hu, S, L. Shi , Y. Zha, M. Williams, and L. Lin. (2017) Simultaneous state-parameter estimation supports the evaluation of data assimilation performance and measurement design for soil-water-atmosphere-plant system Journal of Hydrology 555: 812-831.

Zhu, P., S. Liangsheng, Y. Zhu, Q. Zhang, K. Huang, and M Williams. (2017) Data assimilation of soil water flow via ensemble Kalman filter: infusing soil moisture data at different scales, Journal of Hydrology 555: 912-925.

Whitley, R., J. Beringer, L. B. Hutley, G.l Abramowitz, M. G. De Kauwe, B. Evans, V. Haverd, L.i Li, C. Moore, Y. Ryu, S. Scheiter, S. J. Schymanski, B. Smith, Y.-P. Wang, M. Williams, and Q. Yu. (2017) Challenges and opportunities in land surface modelling of savanna ecosystems, Biogeosciences 14: 4711-4732.

López-Blanco, E., M. Lund, M. Williams, M. P. Tamstorf, A. Westergaard-Nielsen, J.-F. Exbrayat, B. U. Hansen, and T. R. Christensen (2017) Exchange of CO2 in Arctic tundra: impacts of meteorological variations and biological disturbance, Biogeosciences, 14: 4467-4483.

Milodowski, D.T., E.T.A. Mitchard, M. Williams (2017) Forest loss maps from regional satellite monitoring systematically underestimate deforestation in two rapidly changing parts of the Amazon, Environmental Research Letters 12: 094003.

Cooper, M. D. A., Estop-Aragones, C., Fisher, J. P., Thierry, A., Garnett, M. H., Charman, D. J., Murton, J. B., Phoenix, G. K., Treharne, R., Kokelj, S. V., Wolfe, S. A., Lewkowicz, A. G., Williams, M., and Hartley, I. P. (2017) Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands, Nature Climate Change, 7, 507-511, 10.1038/nclimate3328.

Slevin,D., S.F.B. Tett, J-F Exbrayat, A.A. Bloom, M. Williams (2017) Global evaluation of gross primary productivity in the JULES land surface model v3. 4.1, Geoscientific Model Development 10 (7), 2651.

Smallman, T.L., J. -F. Exbrayat, M. Mencuccini, A. A. Bloom and M. Williams (2017) Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests J. Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 122: 528-545.

Ryan, C, M Williams, J Grace, E Woollen, & C Lehmann (2017) Pre-rain green-up is ubiquitous across southern tropical Africa: implications for temporal niche separation and model representation. New Phytologist 213: 625-633.


Myrgiotis, V., M. Williams, R.M. Rees, K.E. Smith, R.E. Thurman & C.F.E. Topp (2016) Model evaluation in relation to soil N2O emissions: An algorithmic method which accounts for variability in measurements and possible time lags. Environmental Modelling & Software 84:251-262.

Whitley, R., Beringer, J., Hutley, L. B., Abramowitz, G., De Kauwe, M. G., Duursma, R., Evans, B., Haverd, V., Li, L.,Ryu, Y., Smith, B., Wang, Y. P., Williams, M. Yu, Q. (2016) A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannah. Biogeosciences, 13: 3245-3265.

Revill, A., Bloom, A. A. & Williams, M. Impacts of reduced model complexity and driver resolution on cropland ecosystem photosynthesis estimates. Field Crops Research: 187: 74–86. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2015.12.006

Fisher, J.P., C. Estop-Aragonés, A. Thierry, D. J. Charman, S. Wolfe, I. P. Hartley, J. B. Murton, M. Williams, G. K. Phoenix (2016) The influence of vegetation and soil characteristics on active-layer thickness of permafrost soils in boreal forest. Global Change Biology 22: 3127–3140.

Bloom, A.B., J-F Exbrayat , I. R. van der Velde , L. Feng , M. Williams (2016) The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle: global retrievals of terrestrial carbon allocation, pools and residence times. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113: 1285-1290.


Safta, C., Ricciuto, D. M., Sargsyan, K., Debusschere, B., Najm, H. N., Williams, M., and Thornton, P. E. (2015) Global sensitivity analysis, probabilistic calibration, and predictive assessment for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1899-1918, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1899-2015.

Hill T.C., C.M. Ryan, and M. Williams (2015). A framework for estimating forest disturbance intensity from successive remotely sensed biomass maps: moving beyond average biomass loss estimates. Carbon Balance and Management 10: 27.

Hartley, I.P., T.C. Hill, T. Wade, R.J. Clement, J.B. Moncrieff, A. Prieto-Blanco, M.I. Disney, B. Huntley, M. Williams, N. Howden, P.A. Wookey, R. Baxter (2015) Quantifying landscape-level methane fluxes in subarctic Finland using a multi-scale approach. Global Change Biology 21:3712-3725

Exbrayat, J and M Williams (2015) Quantifying the net contribution of the Amazonian deforestation to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 42: 2968–2976. doi: 10.1002/2015GL063497

McNicol, IM, CM Ryan, and M Williams (2015) How resilient are African woodlands to disturbance from shifting cultivation? Ecological Applications, 25: 2320–2336

Rowland, L., Harper, A., Christoffersen, B. O., Galbraith, D. R., Imbuzeiro, H. M. A., Powell, T. L., Doughty, C., Levine, N. M., Malhi, Y., Saleska, S. R., Moorcroft, P. R., Meir, P., and Williams, M. (2014) Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses. Geoscientific Model Development, 8: 109-1110, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1097-2015

Slevin, D., S. F. B. Tett, and M. Williams (2015) Multi-site evaluation of the JULES land surface model using global and local data. Geoscientific Model Development: 8:295-316.

Bloom, A.A. & M. Williams (2015). Constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics in a data-limited world: integrating ecological “common sense” in a model-data-fusion framework. Biogeosciences 12, 1299-1315.


Chew YH, B Wenden, A Flis, V Mengin, J Taylor, C L Davey, C Tindal, H Thomas, H J Ougham, P de Reffye, M Stitt, M Williams, R Muetzelfeldt, K J Halliday, and A J Millar (2014) Multiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1410238111

Sus, O., R. Poyatos, J. Barba, N. Carvalhais, P. Llorens, M. Williams, and J. M. Vilalta (2014) Time variable hydraulic parameters improve the performance of a mechanistic stand transpiration model. A case study of Mediterranean Scots pine sap flow data assimilation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 198–199:168-180.

Thomas RQ, Williams M. (2014). A model using marginal efficiency of investment to analyse carbon and nitrogen interactions in terrestrial ecosystems (ACONITE Version 1). Geoscientific Model Development 7, 2015-2037.

Williams, M. (2014). 'That great big broad land 'way up yonder': biogeochemical cycling and climate change in the high latitudes. iLEAPS Newsletter 14: 21-24.

Bonan GB, Williams M, Fisher RA, Oleson KW (2014). Modeling stomatal conductance in the Earth system: linking leaf water-use efficiency and water transport along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Geoscientific Model Development . 7: 2193-2222.

Xenakis, G., and Williams, M. (2014) Comparing microbial and chemical approaches for modelling soil organic carbon decomposition using the DecoChem v1.0 and DecoBio v1.0 models, Geoscientific Model Development , 7, 1519-1533, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1519-2014

Williams, M., E.B. Rastetter, L. van der Pol & G.R. Shaver (2014). Arctic canopy photosynthetic efficiency enhanced under diffuse light, linked to a reduction in the fraction of the canopy in deep shade. New Phytologist: 202, 1267-1276.

Saito, M., S. Luyssaert, B. Poulter, M. Williams, P. Ciais, V. Bellassen, C. M. Ryan, C. Yue, P. Cadule, and P. Peylin (2014), Fire regimes and variability in aboveground woody biomass in miombo woodland, J. Geophysical Research Biogeosci.., 119: 1014-1029, doi:10.1002/2013JG002505.

van de Weg, M., Meir, P., Williams, M., Girardin, C., Malhi, Y., Silva-Espejo, J., Grace, J.G. (2014). Gross Primary Productivity of a high elevation tropical montane cloud forest. Ecosystems 17: 751-764.

Fisher, J. A., G. Patenaude, K. Giri, K. Lewis, P. Meir, P. Pinho, M. D. A. Rounsevell, and M. Williams (2014). Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation: A conceptual framework. Ecosystem Services 7: 34-45

Ruehr, N.K., B..E Law, D. Quandt & Williams M. (2014). Effects of heat and drought on carbon and water dynamics in a regenerating semi-arid pine forest: a combined experimental and modeling approach. Biogeosciences 11: 4139-4156.

Smallman, T.L., M. Williams and J. B. Moncrieff (2014) Can seasonal and interannual variation in landscape CO2 fluxes be detected by atmospheric observations of CO2 concentrations made at a tall tower? Biogeosciences, 11: 735-747.

Ciais, P., A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F. M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J. D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner. 2014. Current systematic carbon cycle observations and needs for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system. Biogeosciences 11:3547-3602.


Rowland, L., Hill, T., Stahl, C., Siebicke, L., Burban, B., Zaragoza‐Castells, J., Ponton, S., Bonal, D., Meir, P., and Williams, M. (2013) Evidence for strong seasonality in the carbon storage and carbon use efficiency of an Amazonian forest, Global Change Biology 20: 979-991

Rowland, L., Stahl, C., Bonal, D., Siebicke, L., Williams, M. & Meir, P. (2013) The Response of Tropical Rainforest Dead Wood Respiration to Seasonal Drought, Ecosystems 16:1294-1309.

Stoy, P. C., Williams, M., Evans, J. G., Prieto-Blanco, A., Disney, M., Hill, T. C., Ward, H. C., Wade, T. J., and Street, L. E. (2013) Upscaling Tundra CO2 Exchange from Chamber to Eddy Covariance Tower. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 45, 275-284.

Powell, T. L., Galbraith, D. R., Christoffersen, B. O., Harper, A., Imbuzeiro, H., Rowland, L., Almeida, S., Brando, P. M., Costa, A. C. L., Costa, M. H., Levine, N. N., Malhi, Y., Saleska, S. R., Sotta, E., Williams, M., Meir, P., and Moorcroft, P. R. (2013) Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought. New Phytologist, 200, 350-365.

Revill, A, O. Sus, B. Barrett, and M. Williams (2013) Carbon cycling of European croplands: a framework for the assimilation of optical and microwave Earth observation data.. Remote Sensing of the Environment, 137: 84-93.

Smallman, T.L., J. B. Moncrieff, and M. Williams (2013) WRFv3.2-SPAv2: development and validation of a coupled ecosystem–atmosphere model, scaling from surface fluxes of CO2 and energy to atmospheric profiles. Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1079-1093.

Hill, T.C, Williams, M., Bloom, A.A., Mitchard, E.T.A., & Ryan, C.M. (2013) Are inventory based and remotely sensed above-ground biomass estimates consistent? PLOS ONE, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0074170.

Sloan, V., Fletcher, B., Press, M., Williams, M., Phoenix, G. (2013). Leaf and fine root carbon stocks and turnover are coupled across Arctic ecosystems. Global Change Biology:18: 3668-3676

Wright, J. K., M. Williams, G. Starr, J. McGee, & R. Mitchell (2013). Measured and modelled leaf and stand-scale productivity across a soil moisture gradient and a severe drought. Plant, Cell and Environment: 36: 467-483.

Fisher, J. A., G. Patenaude, P. Meir, A. J. Nightingale, M. D. A. Rounsevell, M. Williams and I. H. Woodhouse (2013). Strengthening conceptual foundations: analysing frameworks for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation research, Global Environmental Change 23: 1098-1111.

Shaver, G.R, E.B. Rastetter, V. Salmon, L.E. Street, M.J. van de Weg, M.T. van Wijk, and M. Williams (2013). PanArctic Modeling of Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2. Phil. Tran. Royal Soc. B. 368: 1624

Street, L. E., J.-A. Subke, M. Sommerkorn, V. Sloan, H. Ducrotoy, G. K. Phoenix, and M. Williams. 2013. The role of mosses in carbon uptake and partitioning in arctic vegetation. New Phytologist 199:163-175.

Williams, M, T.C. Hill & C.M. Ryan (2013). Using biomass distributions to determine probability and intensity of tropical forest disturbance, Plant Ecology and Diversity: 6, 87-99.

Mitchard, E.T.A, P. Meir, C. M. Ryan, E. S. Woollen, M. Williams, L.E. Goodman, J.A. Mucavele, P.Watts, I.H. Woodhouse & S. S. Saatchi (2013) A novel application of satellite radar data: measuring carbon sequestration and detecting degradation in a community forestry project in Mozambique, Plant Ecology and Diversity: 6, 159-170.

Meir, P, M. Mencuccini, M. Williams & F. Magnani (2013) Forests, instruments and ideas; a tribute to John Grace's career, Plant Ecology and Diversity: 6, 3-6.

Ryan, CM, M Williams, TC Hill, J Grace, IH Woodhouse (2013) Assessing the Phenology of Southern Tropical Africa: A Comparison of Hemispherical Photography, Scatterometry, and Optical/NIR Remote Sensing, Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IEEE Transactions: 99, 1-10.

Sus, O., M. W. Heuer, T. P. Meyers, and M. Williams (2013) A data assimilation framework for constraining upscaled cropland carbon flux seasonality and biometry with MODIS Biogeosciences: 10, 2451-2466.


Saatchi, S., L. Ulander, M. Williams, S. Quegan, T. LeToan, H. Shugart & J. Chave (2012) Forest biomass and the science of inventory from space, Nature Climate Change 2, 826-827.

McGuire, A., T. Christensen, D. Hayes, A. Heroult, E. Euskirchen, Y. Yi, J. Kimball, C. Koven, P. Lafleur, P. Miller ,W. Oechel, P. Peylin, M. Williams, and Y. Yi. (2012) An assessment of the carbon balance of arctic tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions. Biogeosciences 9:3185-3204.

Street, L. E., G. R. Shaver, E. B. Rastetter, M. T. van Wijk, B. A. Kaye, and M. Williams (2012) Incident radiation and the allocation of nitrogen within Arctic plant canopies: implications for predicting gross primary productivity. Global Change Biology. 18:2838-2852

Quegan, S.Q., T. LeToan, J Chave, J. Dall, K. Pappathanassiou, F. Rocca, L. Ulander and M. Williams (2012) BIOMASS: report for mission selection. European Space Agency, Norwiijk, Netherlands.

Woollen, E., C.M Ryan, and M. Williams (2012). Carbon stocks in an African woodland landscape: spatial distributions and scales of variation. Ecosystems 15: 804-818.

Stringer, LC, AJ Dougill, AD Thomas, DV Spracklen, S Chesterman, C Ifejika Speranza, H Rueff, M Riddell, M Williams, T Beedy, DJ Abson, P Klintenberg, S Syampungani, P Powell, AR Palmer, MK Seely, DD Mkwambisi, M Falcao, A Sitoe, S Ross, & G Kopolo (2012). Challenges and opportunities in linking carbon sequestration, livelihoods and ecosystem service provision in drylands, Environmental Science and Policy, 19-20, pp.121-135. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.02.004.

Chew, YH, AM Wilczek, M Williams, SM Welch, J Schmitt, & KJ Halliday (2012) An augmented Arabidopsis phenology model reveals seasonal temperature control of flowering time. New Phytologist 194: 654–665.

Street, L., P. Stoy, M. Sommerkorn, B. Fletcher, V. Sloan, T.C. Hill, & M. Williams (2012). Seasonal bryophyte productivity in the sub-Arctic: a comparison with vascular plants. Functional Ecology 26: 365–378.

Ryan, C. M., T. C. Hill, E. Woollen, C. Ghee, E. T. A. Mitchard, G. Cassells, J. Grace, I. H. Woodhouse, and M. Williams. 2012. Quantifying small-scale deforestation and forest degradation in African woodlands using radar imagery. Global Change Biology 18: 243-257.

Hill, T.C., E. Ryan and M. Williams (2012) The use of CO2 flux time series for parameter and carbon stock estimation in carbon cycle research. Global Change Biology 18: 179-193.


Ryan, C.M. , M. Williams & J Grace (2011) Above and Below Ground Carbon Stocks in a Miombo Woodland Landscape of Mozambique. Biotropica 43: 423-432.

Street, L.E. , J.A. Subke, M. Sommerkorn, A. Heinemeyer, & M.Williams (2011) Turnover of recently assimilated carbon in arctic bryophytes. Oecologia. 167: 325:337.

Whitley, R., C. Macinnis-Ng,L. Hutley, J. Beringer, M, Zeppel, M. Williams, D. Taylor & D. Eamus (2011). Is productivity of mesic savannas light limited or water limited? Results of a simulation study. Global Change Biology. 17: 3130-3149

Macinnis-Ng, C., M. Zeppel, M. Williams and D Eamus (2011) Applying a SPA model to examine the impact of climate change on GPP of open woodlands and the potential for woody thickening. Ecohydrology 4: 379-93.

Hill, T.C., M. Williams, F. I. Woodward and J. B. Moncrieff (2011) Constraining ecosystem processes from tower fluxes and atmospheric profiles. Ecological Applications 21:1474-1489.

Spadavecchia, L., M. Williams and B.E. Law (2011) Uncertainty in predictions of forest carbon dynamics - separating driver error from model error. Ecological Applications 21: 1506-1522.

Hill, T. C., Quaife, T. and Williams, M. (2011) A data assimilation method for using low-resolution Earth Observation data in heterogeneous ecosystems. J. of Geophysical Research 116:D08117.

De Kauwe, M. G., M. I. Disney, T. Quaife, P. Lewis, and M. Williams. (2011). An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest. Remote Sensing of Environment 115:767-780.

Ciais, P , A. Bombelli, M. Williams, S.L. Piao, J. Chave, C.M. Ryan, M. Henry, P. Brender & R. Valentini (2011) The Carbon balance of Africa: Synthesis of Recent Research Studies. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369: 2038-2057.

Ryan, C.M. & Williams, M. (2011) How does fire intensity and frequency affect miombo woodland tree populations and biomass? Ecological Applications 21: 48-60


Scipal, K., M. Arcioni, J. Chave, J. Dall, F. Fois, T. LeToan, C. Lin, K. Papathanassiou, S. Quegan, F. Rocca, S. Saatchi, H. Shugart, L. Ulander, and M. Williams. 2010. The BIOMASS mission—An ESA Earth Explorer candidate to measure the BIOMASS of the earth's forests. Proc. IGARSS 2010:52-55.

Grace, J., C. Ryan, M. Williams, P. Powell, L. Goodman, and R. Tipper. 2010. A pilot project to store carbon as biomass in African woodlands. Carbon Management 1:227-235.

Wattenbach, M., O. Sus, N. Vuichard, S. Lehuger, P. Gottschalk, L. Li, A. Leipe, M. Williams, E. Tomelleri, W. Kutsch, N. Buchmann, W. Eugster, D.Dietiker, M. Aubinet, E. Ceschia, P. Béziat, T. Grünwald, A. Hastings, B. Osborne, P. Ciais, P. Cellier, P. Smith (2010) The carbon balance of European croplands: A cross-site comparison of simulation models. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 139: 419-53.

Sus, O., M. Williams, C. Bernhofer, P. Beziat, N. Buchmann, E. Ceschia, R. Doherty, W. Eugster, T. Gruenwald, W. Kutsch, P. Smith, M. Wattenbach (2010) A linked carbon cycle and crop developmental model: description and evaluation against measurements of carbon fluxes and carbon stocks at several European agricultural sites. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 139: 402-418.

Metcalfe, D. B., P. Meir, L. E. O. C. Aragão, T. F. Domingues, R. Lobo-do-Vale, M. M. Chaves, J. P. Maroco, A. C. L. da Costa, S. S. de Almeida, A. P. Braga, P. H. L. Gonçalves, J. de Athaydes, M. da Costa, T. T. B. Portela, A. A. R. de Oliveira, Y. Malhi, M. Williams (2010) Shifts in plant respiration and carbon use efficiency at a large-scale drought experiment in the eastern Amazon. New Phytologist 187:608-621.

Galbraith ,D., P.E. Levy, S. Sitch, C. Huntingford, P. Cox, M. Williams, P. Meir (2010) Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) under climate change. New Phytologist 187:647-665.

Rastetter, E. B., M. Williams, K. L. Griffin, B. L. Kwiatkowski, G. Tomasky, M. J. Potosnak, P. C. Stoy, G. R. Shaver, M. Stieglitz, J. E. Hobbie, and G. W. Kling (2010) Processing arctic eddy-flux data using a simple carbon-exchange model embedded in the ensemble Kalman filter. Ecological Applications 20: 1285-1301.

Metcalfe, D. B., R. Lobo-do-Vale, M. M. Chaves, J. P. Maroco, L. Aragao, Y. Malhi, A. L. Da Costa, A. P. Braga, P. L. Goncalves, J. De Athaydes, M. Da Costa, S. S. Almeida, C. Campbell, V. Hurry, M. Williams, and P. Meir (2010) Impacts of experimentally imposed drought on leaf respiration and morphology in an Amazon rain forest. Functional Ecology 24:524-533.

Richardson, A. D., M. Williams, D. Y. Hollinger, D. J. P. Moore, D. B. Dail, E. A. Davidson, N. A. Scott, R. S. Evans, H. Hughes, J. T. Lee, C. Rodrigues, and K. Savage. 2010. Estimating parameters of a forest ecosystem C model with measurements of stocks and fluxes as joint constraints. Oecologia 164:25-40.


Alton, P., Fisher, R., Los, S. & Williams, M. (2009) Simulations of global evapotranspiration using semiempirical and mechanistic schemes of plant hydrology. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23 GB4023 .

Mitchard, E. T. A., S. S. Saatchi, I. H. Woodhouse, G. Nangendo, N. S.Ribeiro, M. Williams, C. M. Ryan, S. L. Lewis, T. R. Feldpausch, and P. Meir (2009). Using satellite radar backscatter to predict above-ground woody biomass: A consistent relationship across four different African landscapes , Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23401, doi:10.1029/2009GL040692.

Hernández-Santana, V, J Martínez-Vilalta, J Martínez-Fernández & M Williams (2009) Evaluating the effect of drier and warmer conditions on water use by Quercus pyrenaica, Forest Ecology and Management 258: 1719-1730.

Stoy, PC, AD Richardson, DD Baldocchi, GG Katul, J Stanovick, MD Mahecha, M Reichstein, M Detto, BE Law, G Wohlfahrt, N Arriga, J Campos, JH McCaughey, L Montagnani, KT Paw U, S Sevanto, and M Williams (2009) Biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 in relation to climate: a cross-biome analysis across multiple time scales, Biogeosciences, 6, 2297-2312.

Fox, A, M Williams, AD Richardson, D Cameron, JH Gove, T Quaife, D Ricciuto, M Reichstein, E Tomelleri, C Trudinger, MT van Wijk (2009) The REFLEX project: comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149, 1597–1615.

Stoy, PC, M Williams, M Disney, A Prieto-Blanco, B Huntley, R Baxter, & P Lewis (2009) Upscaling as ecological information transfer: a simple framework with application to Arctic ecosystem carbon exchange. Landscape Ecology 24: 971-986.

Williams, M, AD Richardson, M Reichstein, PC Stoy, P Peylin, H Verbeeck, N Carvalhais, M Jung, DY Hollinger, J Kattge, R Leuning, Y Luo, , E Tomelleri, C Trudinger, and Y-P Wang (2009). Improving land surface models with FLUXNET data, Biogeosciences, 6, 1341-1359.

Stoy, PC, M Williams, L Spadavecchia, R Bell, A Prieto-Blanco, J Evans and M T van Wijk (2009) Using information theory to determine optimum pixel size and shape for ecological studies: Aggregating land surface characteristics in Arctic ecosystems. Ecosystems 12: 574-589..

Spadavecchia, L & M. Williams (2009) Can Spatio-Temporal Geostatistical Methods Improve High Resolution Regionalisation of Meteorological Variables? Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149: 1105-1117.


Hill, TC, M. Williams and J. B. Moncrieff (2008) Modelling feedbacks between a boreal forest and the planetary boundary layer. Journal of Geophysical research 113, D15122.

Metcalfe, DB , P Meir, LEOC Aragão, ACL da Costa, AP Braga, PHL Gonçalves, J de Athaydes Silva Junior, SS de Almeida, LA Dawson, Y Malhi, M Williams (2008) The effects of water availability on root growth and morphology in an Amazon rainforest. Plant and Soil 311, 189-199.

Zeppel, M, C Macinnis-Ng, A Palmer, D Taylor, R Whitley, S Fuentes, I Yunusa, M Williams and D Eamus (2008) An analysis of the sensitivity of sap flux to soil and plant variables assessed for an Australian woodland using SPA. Functional Plant Biology 35:509-520.

Spadavecchia, L, M Williams, R Bell, PC Stoy, B Huntley & MT van Wijk (2008) Topographic Controls on the Leaf Area Index and Plant Functional Type of a Tundra Ecosystem. Journal of Ecology 96: 1238-1251.

Fox, AM, B Huntley, CR Lloyd, M Williams and R Baxter (2008) Net ecosystem exchange over heterogeneous Arctic tundra: Scaling between chamber and eddy covariance measurements, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22, GB2027

Fisher, RA, M Williams, M de Lourdes Ruivo, A L da Costa & P Meir (2008) Evaluating climatic and edaphic controls on dry season gas exchange at two Amazonian rain forest sites. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148: 850-861.

Metcalfe D, P Meir, L Aragão, A da Costa, S Almeida, A Braga, P Goncalves, J Athaydes, Y Malhi & M Williams (2008) Sample sizes for estimating key ecosystem characteristics in a tropical terra firme rainforest. Forest Ecology and Management 255: 558–566.

Williams M, Bell R, Spadavecchia L, Street LE, van Wijk MT (2008) Upscaling leaf area index in an Arctic landscape through multi-scale observations. Global Change Biology 14:1517-1530.

Quaife, T, P Lewis, M De Kauwe, M Williams, BE Law, M Disney & P Bowyer (2008) Assimilating Canopy Reflectance data into an Ecosystem Model with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Remote Sensing of the Environment.111: 1347-1364.

Williams M, CM Ryan, RM Rees, E Sambane, J Fernando and J Grace. (2008) Carbon sequestration and biodiversity of re-growing miombo woodlands in Mozambique. Forest Ecology and Management, 254: 145-155.


Metcalfe D, M Williams & P Meir (2007) A comparison of methods for converting rhizotron root length measurements into estimates of root mass production per unit ground area. Plant and Soil301: 279-288.

Metcalfe, DN, P Meir, LEOC Aragão, Y Malhi, ACL da Costa, A Braga, PHL Gonçalves, J de Athaydes, SS de Almeida, and M Williams (2007) Factors controlling spatio-temporal variation in carbon dioxide efflux from surface litter, roots and soil organic matter at four rain forest sites in the eastern Amazon. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: G04001, doi:10.1029/2007JG000443.

Fisher RA, M Williams, A Lola da Costa, Y Malhi, RF da Costa, S Almeida and PW Meir (2007) The response of an Eastern Amazonian rain forest to drought stress: Results and modelling analyses from a through-fall exclusion experiment. Global Change Biology 13: 1-18.

Shaver, GR, LE Street, EB Rastetter, MT. van Wijk and M Williams (2007) Functional convergence in regulation of net CO2 flux in heterogeneous tundra landscapes in Alaska and Sweden. Journal of Ecology 95: 802-817.

Street, LE, GR Shaver, M Williams & MT van Wijk (2007) What is the relationship between changes in canopy leaf area and changes in photosynthetic CO2 flux in arctic ecosystems? Journal of Ecology 95: 139-150.

Metcalfe, DB, M Williams, LEOC Aragao et al. (2007) A method for extracting plant roots from soil which facilitates rapid sample processing without compromising measurement accuracy. New Phytologist 174: 697-703.


Fisher, RA, M Williams, R Lobo do Vale, A Lola da Costa & P Meir (2006) Evidence from Amazonian forests is consistent with a model of isohydric control of leaf water potential. Plant, Cell and Environment 29: 151-165

Williams, M, LE Street, MT Van Wijk, GR Shaver (2006). Identifying differences in carbon exchange among arctic ecosystem types. Ecosystems 9: 288-304.


Engel V, EG Jobbagy, M Stieglitz, M Williams and RB Jackson (2005) Hydrological consequences of eucalyptus afforestation in the argentine pampas. Water Resources Research 41: (10): Art. No. W10409

Aragao, L.E.O.C., Y. E. Shimabukuro, F. D. B. Espirito Santo and M. Williams (2005) Spatial validation of collection 4 MODIS LAI product in Eastern Amazon. IEEE TGRS 43, 2526- 2534.

Aragao, L.E.O.C., Y.E. Shimabukuro, F.D.B. Espirito Santo & M. Williams (2005). Landscape pattern and spatial variability of leaf area index in Eastern Amazonia. Forest Ecology and Management 211, 240-256.

Van Wijk, M.T. and M. Williams (2005). Optical instruments for measuring leaf area index in low vegetation: application in arctic ecosystems. Ecological Applications 15, 1462-1470.

Williams, M., P.A. Schwarz, B.E. Law, J. Irvine & M. Kurpius (2005). An improved analysis of forest carbon dynamics using data assimilation. Global Change Biology 11, 89-105.

Van Wijk, M.T., M. Williams & G.R. Shaver (2005). Tight coupling between leaf area index and foliage N content in arctic plant communities. Oecologia 142: 421-7


Schwarz, P.A., B. E. Law, M. Williams, J. Irvine, M. Kurpius & D. Moore (2004). Climatic versus biotic constraints on carbon and water fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine ecosystems. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18, GB4007, doi:10.1029/2004GB002234

Winner WE, SC Thomas, JA Berry, BJ Bond, CE Cooper, TM Hinckley, JR Ehleringer, JE Fessenden, B Lamb, S McCarthy, NG McDowell, N Phillips & M Williams (2004). Canopy carbon gain and water use: Analysis of old-growth conifers in the Pacific Northwest. Ecosystems 7: 482-497.

Grace, J. and M. Williams (2004) Understanding and parameterizing the soil-water-atmosphere transfer through vegetation, In: "Unsaturated-zone modeling progress, challenges and applications", edited by R.A. Feddes, Rooij & J.C. van Dam. Frontis.

Williams, M., F I Woodward, D D Baldocchi, D Ellsworth (2004) CO2 capture from the leaf to the landscape, In: "Photosynthetic Adaptation: Chloroplast to Landscape", edited by W.K. Smith, T.C. Vogelmann & C Critchley. Ecological Studies 178, Springer.

Hanson, P.J., J. S. Amthor, S. D. Wullschleger, K. B. Wilson, R. F. Grant, A. Hartley, D. Hui, E. R. Hunt, D. W. Johnson, J. S. Kimball, A. W. King, Y. Luo, S. G. McNulty, G. Sun, P. E. Thornton, S. Wang, M. Williams, D. D. Baldocchi & R. M. Cushman (2004). Carbon and water cycle simulations for an upland oak forest using 13 stand-level models: intermodel comparisons and evaluations against independent measurements. Ecological Monographs 74: 443-489

Van Wijk, M.T., K. E. Clemmensen, G.R. Shaver, M. Williams, et al. (2004) Long-term ecosystem level experiments at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and at Abisko, Northern Sweden: generalisations and differences in ecosystem and plant type responses to global change. Global Change Biology 10: 105-123.


Herbert, D.A., M. Williams, & E. B. Rastetter (2003) A model analysis of N and P limitation on carbon accumulation in Amazonian secondary forest after alternate land-use abandonment. Biogeochemistry 65: 121-150.

Van Wijk, M.T., M. Williams, L. Gough, S. E. Hobbie & G. R. Shaver (2003) Luxury consumption of soil nutrients: a possible competitive strategy in above-ground and below-ground biomass allocation and root morphology for slow-growing arctic vegetation? Journal of Ecology 91: 664-676

Van Wijk, M.T., M. Williams, J.A. Laundre, & G.R. Shaver (2003) Inter-annual variability of plant phenology in tussock tundra: modelling interactions of plant productivity, plant phenology, snowmelt and soil thaw. Global Change Biology, 9: 743-758.


Williams, M., Y.E. Shimabukuro, D.A. Herbert, S. Pardi Lacruz, C. Renno and E.B. Rastetter (2002) Heterogeneity of soils and vegetation in eastern Amazonian rain forest; implications for scaling up biomass and production. Ecosystems, 5: 692-704.

Engel, V.C., M. Stieglitz, M. Williams and K.L. Griffin (2002) Forest canopy hydraulic properties and catchment water balance: observations and modeling. Ecological Modelling 154: 263-288.


Williams, M., Rastetter, E. B., Shaver, G. R., Hobbie, J. E., Carpino, E. and Kwiatkowski, B. L. (2001). Primary production in an arctic watershed; an uncertainty analysis. Ecological Applications 11: 1800-1816.

Williams, M., Bond, B.J., & Ryan M.G. (2001) Evaluating different soil and plant hydraulic constraints on tree function using a model and sap flow data from ponderosa pine. Plant, Cell and Environment 24:679-690.

Williams, M., B. E. Law, P. M. Anthoni & M. Unsworth (2001) Using a simulation model and ecosystem flux data to examine carbon-water interactions in ponderosa pine. Tree Physiology 21: 287-298


Williams, M., W. Eugster, E.B. Rastetter, J.P. McFadden & F.S. Chapin III (2000) The controls on net ecosystem productivity along an arctic transect: a model comparison with flux measurements. Global Change Biology 6: (suppl. 1) 116-126.

Stieglitz, M., A. Giblin, J.E. Hobbie, M. Williams, G. Kling (2000) Effects of climate change and climate variability on the carbon dynamics in Arctic tundra. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 14: 1123-1136

Law, B.E., M. Williams, P.M. Anthoni, D.D. Baldocchi, & M.H. Unsworth (2000) Measuring and modelling seasonal variation of carbon dioxide and water vapour exchange of a Pinus ponderosa forest subject to soil water deficit. Global Change Biology 6: 613-630.

Hobbie, E.A., S. A. Macko & M. Williams (2000) Correlations between foliar nitrogen levels and isotopic ratios indicate possible plant-mycorrhizal interactions. Oecologia 122:272-283.


Williams, M. & E. B. Rastetter (1999) Vegetation characteristics and primary productivity along an arctic transect: implications for scaling up. Journal of Ecology 87: 885-898

Rastetter, E.B., L. Gough, A. E. Hartley, D.A Herbert, K.J. Nadelhoffer & M. Williams (1999) A revised assessment of species redundancy and ecosystem reliability. Conservation Biology13:440-443.


Williams, M., Y. Malhi, A. Nobre, E. B. Rastetter, J. Grace and M.G.P. Pereira (1998) Seasonal variation in net carbon exchange and evapotranspiration in a Brazilian rain forest: a modelling analysis. Plant, Cell and Environment 21: 953-968.

Waring, R.H., J.J. Landsberg and M. Williams (1998) Net primary production of forests: a constant fraction of gross primary production? Tree Physiology 18: 129-134.

Cebrian, J., M. Williams, J. W. McClelland, & I. Valiela (1998) The dependence of heterotrophic consumption and C accumulation on autotrophic nutrient content in ecosystems. Ecology Letters 1:165-170.


Williams, M., E.B Rastetter, D.N Fernandes, M.L. Goulden, G.R. Shaver & L.C. Johnson (1997) Predicting gross primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecological Applications 7: 882-894.


Williams, M., E.B. Rastetter, D.N. Fernandes, M.L. Goulden, S.C. Wofsy, G.R. Shaver, J.M. Melillo, J.W. Munger, S.-M. Fan, and K.J. Nadelhoffer (1996) Modelling the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in a Quercus-Acer stand at Harvard Forest: the regulation of stomatal conductance by light, nitrogen and soil/plant hydraulic properties. Plant, Cell and Environment 19: 911-927.

Williams, M. (1996) A three-dimensional model of forest development and competition. Ecological Modelling 89: 73-98.

Williams, M. & R.D. Yanai (1996) Multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis and ecological implications of a nutrient uptake model. Plant and Soil 180: 311-324.