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Contemporary Climate Research Activities

The Contemporary Climate Research Programme includes research into the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and its interaction with the ocean and land-surface, concentrating on global and regional scales, and utilising computer models and remote sensing techniques.

Our current research interests include:-

Measurements and modelling of atmospheric chemistry and transport

We use a number of Eulerian and Lagrangian atmospheric chemistry transport models (e.g., GEOS-Chem, Flexpart) that are used to test and improve current understanding of atmospheric composition. We lead the NERC BORTAS aircraft campaign (that looks at photochemistry in aging biomass burning plumes) and co-investigate on a number of surface campaigns (e.g., NERC OP3 and APPRAISE consortia). For our work, we collaborate with a wide range of international measurement and modelling groups (e.g., NOAA;NCAR; NASA; ESA; JAMSTEC; LSCE; Universities of Leeds, York, Oxford, Cambridge, Utah, Wollongong).

Investigators: Paul Palmer (group)

Surface flux modelling of CO2, CH4 and non-methane VOCs

To interpret measurements of atmospheric composition we actively develop and apply surface flux models. Recent work includes wetland emissions of CH4 and biogenic emissions of isoprene and other non-CH4 VOCs (the latter mainly in collaboration with Alex Guenther). We also develop inverse models to infer surface fluxes of CO from biomass burning, including rapid vertical atmospheric mixing; anthropogenic and biospheric CO2 fluxes; and surface sources of CH4. To interpret changes in trace gas fluxes from natural vegetation we have developed a simple phenology model that describes observed changes in leaf cover over the tropics.

Investigators: Paul Palmer (group)

Satellite observations of chemical composition in the troposphere

Satellite observations of chemical composition offer a unique perspective of atmospheric chemistry and transport, and the surface processes that help to determine observed variations in trace gases and particles. We belong to a number of NASA (OCO-2), ESA (PREMIER), and Japanese (GOSAT) instrument science teams, and work closely with other science teams (e.g., NASA TES, GOME-2, SCIAMACHY, MOPITT, IASI, CALIPSO, MODIS, MISR). We are co-investigators of the UK National Centre for Earth Observation. Recent work includes collaborating with instrument development teams at NASA JPL, Surrey Satellite Technology Limited, and the UK Astronomy Technology Centre.

Investigators: Paul Palmer (group)

GOME HCHO columns, Aug 2000 c/o K Chance

Sea Surface Temperature and Climate Change

This international project is part of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative, and builds on previous research in the UK funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and Department of Energy and Climate Change. The objective is an independent re-appraisal of the record of global sea surface temperature over the past few decades (the satellite era). We use advanced techniques that allow us to observe these temperatures independently of the other types of measurement that have previously been used to construct the "global warming" record.

Investigators: Chris Merchant, Hugh Pumphrey, Nick Rayner (Met. Office), Gary Corlett (Leicester), Pierre Le Borgne (Meteo France), Jacob Hoyer ( Danish Met. Inst.), Steinar Eastwood (met.no), Norman Fomferra (Brockmann Consult) and Paul Spinks (Space Connexions)

Radiative forcing of climate change from non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols

Changes in atmospheric composition have been the main drivers of climate change in the 20th century, and will remain important in the future. Whilst CO2 is the dominant driver, changes in methane (CH4), ozone (O3) and aerosols are also significant, but are much less well understood. These species are much shorter-lived than CO2, because they are chemically reactive, with atmospheric lifetimes ranging from about a decade for CH4 down to days for ozone and aerosols. These timescales are similar to many transport and mixing rates in the atmosphere - this means that distributions of these species are controlled by a combination of transport, mixing and photochemistry. Their relatively short lifetimes mean that control measures that target these species may offer opportunities to significantly influence climate change over the next few decades (e.g., Penner et al., 2010). We use a variety of models to simulate these non-CO2 species, at both global and regional scales.

One research focus is on modelling tropospheric ozone, including its contribution to radiative forcing of climate change (e.g., Stevenson et al., 2006). New radiative forcing calculations for both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone over the time period 1850-2100, based on the ozone fields used in CMIP5 simulations are shown above. The future time period shows projections for tropospheric ozone for four different emission scenarios; stratospheric ozone has only been evaluated for a single scenario.

Investigators: David Stevenson

Global and Hemispheric Air Quality

Many of the trace gases that influence climate are also major air pollutants, and are a cause of great concern for both human health and vegetation. A prime example is ground level ozone, which impacts human health and causes direct damage to crops and forests. There are strong linkages between air quality policies and climate change policies. In some cases the two work together: e.g., control of methane emissions will both reduce methane and also reduce ground-level ozone. However, in other cases policies can work against each other: e.g., controls of NOx emissions will reduce ozone, but also reduce the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere, increasing the residence time (and hence concentration) of methane.

We are one of a number of chemistry-climate modelling groups from around the world that are members of the UN Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution. We have participated in multi-model experiments to examine the effect of air pollution from one continent on downwind continents for present-day and future. This work informs policy-makers concerned with hemispheric air quality legislation.

Investigators: David Stevenson Ruth Doherty Ian MacKenzie		Difference in the impact of a 20% emission reduction (CO,NOx,VOCs) in North America on surface ozone concentrations in the source and receptor regions (Europe, S. and E. Asia) for 2000s and 2050s climates.

UK Weather and Air Quality related Health impacts

Heatwaves often occur under anticyclonic weather conditions. Such weather patterns are also often ideal for air pollution events that lead to air quality exceedences. We have investigated the joint and interactive effects of heat and ozone of human health in the UK. To do this we use monitor data and high resolution weather (WRF) and chemistry transport (EMEP4UK) models that operate at 5km by 5km resolution. Our colleagues at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine use the monitor and model results to calculate UK health burdens for present-day and under future emissions scenarios. In collaborative research with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, we are also participating in a model inter-comparison of atmospheric composition across the UK for Defra.

A new multi-disciplinary project involving 5 UK institutions (Universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, St. Georges Hospital, University of London and University College London) will examine the spatial variations in health outcomes related to mixtures of air pollutants and weather in the UK, and the relationship to socio-economic inequalities.

Investigators: Ruth Doherty, Massimo Vieno (GeoSciences/Edinburgh Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Mat Heal (School of Chemistry), David Stevenson

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