Earthquake Hazards

Earthquakes have devastating consequences from both the primary ground shaking and secondary hazards that they trigger such as land slides or tsunamis. The earthquake process can be interrogated in terms of digital seismology, field analysis of fault networks examining historic and paleo-seismic events, laboratory rock physics experiments, the statistical analysis of earthquake data and from a material science perspective.

The School of GeoSciences has a strong record addressing issues related to earthquake hazard research across a broad range of themes. We have close links to the the Seismology Group at the British Geological Survey.

Statistical and physical models of earthquake occurrence

To what extent can we constrain the location, nature and timing of future earthquakes? We are involved in developing, analysing and evaluating physical and statistical models for the occurrence of earthquakes. This work includes empirical quantification of the statistics of earthquakes, and comparing these to model predictions.

our work has included involvement in the EC LOCAT, NERIES and TRIGS projects and work with the Geophysics group at the University of Ulster
Key research in this area includes:

The statistics of earthquake inter-event times

Earthquake-frequency magnitude distributions and model discrimination

Spatial and temporal properties of earthquake triggering

ETAS and Coulomb models for earthquake interactions

key contacts: Ian Main, Mark Naylor, Andy Bell, Sabine Lennartz, Sarah Touati

Rock mechanics and brittle deformation

Experimental studies of rock deformation can provide information on the fundamental physics of rocks, as well as a controlled environment in which to study some of the key processes underlying earthquake occurrence. Low strain-rate "brittle creep" tests can begin to approach natural-world conditions, and detailed analysis of data from such experiments will allow us to determine how the predictability of brittle failure scales from lab to nature.

A major NERC-funded research project we're leading involves the evaluation of real-time forecasts of brittle failure in the lab and the field, in collaboration with the School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh and the Rock and Ice Physics Laboratory, UCL.

key contacts: Ian Main, Andy Bell

Earthquake interferometry

Seismic Interferometry is a technique that exploded within seismology in 2003 and has expanded greatly ever since. The method uses the “background hum” of our Earth to turn real receivers into virtual (imaginary) sources. These sources never physically exist, except in our “imaginary state” as virtual earthquakes, but the technique provides real seismograms from them without recourse to physical or synthetic modelling. As seismologists, we can use recordings of the seismic energy from these virtual earthquakes to determine the structure of the Earth beneath the surface. Our ability to create virtual earthquakes means we no longer need to wait for real earthquakes to occur in desired locations before we can begin to examine and understand more about the structural complexity of the Earth’s interior. The technique has therefore introduced a new form of seismology - seismology without earthquakes!

The Edinburgh Interferometry Project is working closely with industry to develop interferometric theory and methods for use in exploration seismology. Much work is also carried out in collaboration with the British Geological Survey, where we apply Earthquake Interferometry to monitor some of the world’s most active volcanoes, and to explore the subsurface of previously relatively poorly understood areas like (surprisingly!) the UK.

key contacts: Andrew Curtis, Elizabeth Entwistle

Increasing resilience to earthquakes

Understanding the interaction between earthquake hazards and resilience is key to reducing managing and reducing risk. Initiatives are under way to bring together physical and social scientists, NGOs, government and the insurance industry to this end. The school of GeoSciences are involved in the NERC IRNH programme through the ICRIES and Volcanoscope projects.

key contacts: Ian Main, Andy Bell, Mark Naylor