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Phenology: Four current grand challenges
Prof. Roy Thompson
GeoSciences
The University of Edinburgh
Grand Challenges were originally conceived as goals for high-performance computing concerning fundamental problems in science, or engineering, with broad applications. Four grand challenges can be identified in phenology. Here the tasks have many affinities with the 'Labours of Hercules'. The challenges currently appear to be too difficult for mere mortals. Their solution seems to require the gifts, and fortitude, of a demi-god if not of Zeus himself. Attempts at assessing the impacts of climate change are reminiscent of Hercules' battle with the many-headed Hydra of Lernaea. As soon as one problem is dealt with, two immediately arise in its place. Mankind's trek into the future global greenhouse will be as perilous as Hercules' journey into Hades. Like Hercules we need to be prepared. Phenology can help forewarn us of many perils ahead.
Challenge 1 (for the statistician & physiologist)
Question: Can the world's best models and observations be reconciled?
Challenge 2 (for the remote sensor & modeller)
Question: Can we upscale from plant to patch to planet?
Challenge 3 (for the ecologist and manager)
Question: Where will biota move to? And how quickly?
Challenge 4 (for the geneticist)
Question: Will plants keep pace with future climate change?
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