Science and Engineering at The University of Edinburgh

Ian is interested in the processes that lead up to catastrophic failure events, from earthquakes, rock fracture, and volcanic eruptions to failure of building materials and bridges. He is particularly interested in the population dynamics of localised brittle failure as a complex, non-linear (unreasonable) system, as well as the influence of old, new and reactivated faults and fault zones on fluid flow underground, including oil and gas fields, groundwater aquifers, and potential CO2 storage sites.

Current research projects involve (a) observing and modelling brittle rock deformation in the laboratory and in a deep-sea experiment, taking advantage of sea-water pressure to provide a stable environment for very slow 'creep' tests; (b) Hazard forecasting in real time using a web-based portal; (c) Strategies and tools for Real-Time EArthquake RisK ReducTion (REAKT), (d) earthquake statistics, especially triggering phenomena; (e) modelling and observing localising signatures of catastrophic failure in rocks and other complex materials; (f) the effect of stress, faults and fractures on flow rates in oil reservoirs; and (f) identifying reservoir fluid compartments.

In knowledge transfer he is working on commercialisation of a recently-developed method of statistical reservoir analysis, as an aid to enhanced oil recovery and monitoring of CO2 storage sites. He is also interested in risk reduction and uncertainty management in mitigating a range of Geo-Hazards.

Ian is currently a member of: (a) The HEFCE Research Excellence Framework (REF) Panel on Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences; (b) the Research Advisory Forum of the Scottish Energy Technology Partnership (ETP); (c) the Scottish Regional Advisory Group for Enhanced Learning and Research for Humanitarian Assistance ELRHA; (d) The Royal Society of Edinburgh Sectional committee in Earth Science and Chemistry.

He served as a member of the International commission on earthquake forecasting for civil protection following the destructive earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy. An executive summary of its findings and recommendations was published on the Italian Civil protection website in 2010. Its full report followed in 2011.

He gave the Bullerwell lecture in Geophysics in 1997, and moderated the Nature debate on earthquake prediction in 1999. He was elected a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 2009, and has just completed a Scottish Government/RSE research support fellowship.

Phone: +44 131 650 4911
Fax: +44 131 668 3184
Email: ian.main[at]ed.ac.uk