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Science and Engineering at The University of Edinburgh

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Gabi's Publications

Iles C. and Hegerl G.C. (2014): The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models.Environmental Research Letters, submitted.

Krueger O., Tett S.F.B. and Hegerl G. (2014) Can climate models correctly simulate the mechanisms of European temperature extremes? Environmental Research Letters, submitted.

Russon T., Tudhope A., Hegerl G.C. and Collins M. (2014): Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from proxy records. Submitted for publication.

Stott P., Hegerl G.C., Herring S., Hoerling M.P., Peterson T., Zhang X. and Zwiers F.W. (2014): Introduction to explaining events of 2013 from a climate perspective ; Bull. Am. Met. Soc., in review.

Lennard C. and Hegerl G.C. (2014): Relating changes in synoptic circulation to the surface rainfall response using self-organising maps. Climate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2169-6.

Polson D., Bollasina M., Hegerl G. C. and Wilcox, L.(2014) Decreased monsoon precipitation in the 1 Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols. GRL, in press.

Hegerl G.C. and Stott P.A. (2014) From Past to Future Warming. Perspective in Science, 314, 844-845.

Russon T., Tudhope A. W., Hegerl G. C., Schurer A. and Collins M (2014): Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics. J. Climate, 27, 4911-4922.

Hegerl GC, Black E., Allan R. P., Ingram W.J. Ingram, Polson D., Trenberth K.E., Chadwick R.S., Arkin P.A. Balan Sarojini B., Becker A., Blyth E., Dai A,, Durack P., Easterling D., Fowler H., Kendon E., Huffman G.J., Liu C., Marsh R., New M., Osborn T.J., Skliris N., Stott P.A.,, Vidale P.L., Wijffels S.E., Wilcox L.J., Willett K., Zhang X. (2014): Quantifying changes in the global watercycle. BAMS, resubmitted.

Hanlon H., Hegerl G. C., and Tett S.F.B (2014): Near-term prediction of impact relevant heatwave extremes. Climatic Change, in review.

2013

Bindoff, N., Stott P. et al., 2013: Detection and Attribution: from global to regional. In: Climate Change, 2013. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker T. et al. (eds.)], Cambridge University Press,, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Zhang X. , H. Wan, F. W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl and S-K Min(2013) Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophys. Res. Let 40, 5252 (2013). Science editors choice

Polson D., G.C. Hegerl, R.P. Allan and B. Balan-Sarojini (2013) Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions? Geophys. Res. Let 40, 1-5 doi:10.1002/grl.50923, 2013

Schurer A., Tett S.F.B and G.C. Hegerl (2013) Constraining the effect of solar variation on the climate of the last millennium. Nature GeoScience, advance online publication Dec22 2013.

Zwiers F.W., Hegerl G.C., Zhang X. and Wen Q.H. (2013) Quantifying the Human and Natural Contributions to Observed Climate Change In: Statistics in Action: A Canadian Perspective [book in conjunction with the Int. Year of Statistics); in press.

Otto A., Otto F.E.L., Boucher O., Church J., Hegerl G., Forster P.M., Gillett, N.P., Gregory J., Johnson G.C., Knutti E., Lewis N., Lohmann U., Marotzke J., Myhre G., Shindell D., Stevens B and Allen M.R. (2013): Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geoscience 6, 415–416 (2013) doi:10.1038/ngeo1836

Iles, C., G.C. Hegerl, A.P. Schurer and X. Zhang (2013) The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. JGR, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678, VOL. 118, 8770–8786, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678.

T. Russon, A. W. Tudhope, G. C. Hegerl, M. Collins, and J. Tindall (2013) Inter-annual tropical Pacific climate variability in an isotope-enabled CGCM: implications for interpreting coral stable oxygen isotope records of ENSO. Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 741-773

Russon T., Tudhope A. W., Hegerl G. C., Schurer A. and Collins M (2013): Assessing the extent of changes in ENSO variability over the last millennium. J. Climate, In press.

Hanlon H., Morak S., Hegerl G.C. (2013): Detection and Prediction of mean and extreme European Summer temperatures with a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 9631–9641, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50703.

Hanlon H., Hegerl, G.C., Tett, S.F.B., Smith, D. (2013): Can a decadal forecasting system predict temperature extreme indices? J Climate, 26, 3728-3744.

Schurer, A., Hegerl, G.C., Mann, M., Tett, S.F.B., Phipps, S (2013): Separating forced from chaotic variability over the last millennium. J Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00826.1

Polson, D., G. Hegerl, X. Zhang (2013): Causes of robust seasonal land precipitation changes. J Climate, 26, 6679–6697. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00474.1.

Russon T., A. W. Tudhope, G. C. Hegerl, M. Collins, A. Schurer and K. Cobb (2013): The unforced contribution to changes in ENSO variability over the last millennium. Revision in prep.

Christidis, N., Stott, P.A., Hegerl G.C. and Betts R. (2013): The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures. GRL, 40, 1–6, doi:10.1002/grl.50159.

Morak, S., Hegerl, N. Christidis (2013): Detectable Changes in Temperature Extremes. Journal of Climate.26, 1561-1574

Zanchettin D, Timreck C, Bothe O. Lorenz S.J., Hegerl G.C., Graf H.-F., Luterbacher J., Jungklaus J (2013): Delayed Winter Warming: A decadal dynamical response to strong volcanic eruptions. GRL.

2012

L. Goddard1*, A. Kumar2, A. Solomon3, D. Smith4, G. Boer5, P. Gonzalez1, C. Deser6, S. Mason1, B. Kirtman7, R. Msadek8, R. Sutton9, E. Hawkins9, T. Fricker10, S. Kharin5, W. Merryfield5, G. Hegerl11, C. Ferro10, D. Stephenson10, G.A. Meehl6, T. Stockdale12, R. Burgman7, A. Greene1, Y. Kushnir13, M. Newman3, J. Carton14, I. Fukumori15, D. Vimont16, T. Delworth8 (2012): Verification Framework for Interannual-to-Decadal Prediction Experiments. Climate Dynamics, Clim Dyn 40:245–272

Mahlstein I., Hegerl G.C. and Solomon, S. (2012): Emerging local warming signals in observational data. GRL 39, L21711, doi:10.1029/2012GL053952, 2012

Zwiers, FW, LV Alexander, GC Hegerl, J Kossin, TR Knutson, P Naveau, N Nicholls, C Schar, SI Seneviratne, X Zhang (2012): Challenges in Estimating and Understanding Recent Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate and Weather Events. Submitted for inclusion in an edited compilation of community papers commissioned for the WCRP Open Science Conference, 24-28 October 2011, Denver, CO, USA.

Zwiers, FW, GC Hegerl, S-K Min, X Zhang, 2012: Historical Context. In Peterson, TC, PA Stott, S Herring, Eds., 2012: Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, July 2012, 1041-1066, 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1.

Noake, K., D. Polson, G. C. Hegerl and X. Zhang (2012): Changes in seasonal land precipitation during the latter twentieth century. GRL 39, L03706.

2011

Hegerl, G.C. and T.R. Russon (2011): Using the Past to Predict the Future? Science, 2011, science.1214828.

Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers and C. Tebaldi (2011): Patterns of change: Whose fingerprint is seen in global warming. ERL, 6 (2011) 031002. Highlighted in ERL Highlights of 2011

Zhang, X, L. Alexander, G.C. Hegerl, P.D. Jones, A. Klein-Tank, T.C. Peterson, B. Trewin and F. Zwiers (2011): Indices for Monitoring Changes in Extremes based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data. WIREs Clim Change 2011. doi: 10.1002/wcc.147

Hegerl, G.C., Stott, P. A., Solomon S. and Zwiers, F.W. (2011) Comment on Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster by J.A. Curry and P.J. Webster. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 92, 1683-1685.

Min, S.-K, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers and G. C. Hegerl (2011): Human contribution to more intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470, 376-379.

Hegerl, G.C. and F.W. Zwiers (2011): Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change. WIRES: Climate Change, 2, 570-591.

Hegerl, G. C, J. Luterbacher, F. Gonzalez-Ruoco, S.F.B. Tett and E. Xoplaki (2011): Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures with supplementary material. Nature GeoScience, 4, 99-103

Lackner, B., A. Steiner, G. Kirchengast and G. Hegerl (2011): Atmospheric Climate Change Detection by Radio Occultation Data Using a Fingerprinting Method. J. Climate, 24, 5275-5291.

Morak, S., Hegerl G. Kenyon J (2011): Detectable Regional Changes in the Number of Warm Nights. Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L17703.

Hegerl, G., H. Hanlon, and C Beierkuhnlein, 2011: Elusive Extremes. Perspective in Nature GeoScience, 4, 142-143.

Hegerl, G.C., 2011: Global warming: it is not only size that matters. Perspective in Environ. Res. Let. 6 (2011) 031002, 2pp. Highlighted in ERL Highlights of 2011

2010

Stott, P. A., G. Jones, N. Christidis, F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, and H. Shiogama (2010): Single-step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence" Atmospheric Science Letters 11: doi 10.1002/asl.315

Solomon, A., L. Goddard, A. Kumar, J. Carton, C. Deser, I. Fukumori, A. Greene, G. Hegerl, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, D. Smith, D. Vimont, T. Delworth and T. Stockdate (2010): Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 92, 141ff

Kenyon, J and G. C. Hegerl (2010): Influence of models of climate variability on global precipitation extremes. J. Climate 23, 6248-6262.

2009

Portmann R. W., S. Solomon and G.C. Hegerl (2009): Linkages between climate change, extreme temperature and precipitation across the United States . PNAS, 2009, www.pnas.org cgi doi 10.1073 pnas.0808533106.

Meehl, G.A., L Goddard, J Murphy, R.J. Stouffer, G Boer, G Danabasoglu, K Dixon, MA Gorgetta, AM Greene, E. Hawkins, G Hegerl, D Karoly, N Keenlyside, M Kimoto, B Kirtman, A Navarra, R Pulwarty, D Smith, D Stammer and T Stockdale (2009): Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful? BAMS, in press.

G. Hegerl and S. Solomon (2009): Risks of Climate Engineering, Science, 325, 955-966, August 2009.

2008

Knutti, R and G. Hegerl (2008):The equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nature GeoSciences,(1), no 11, 735-743.

Knutti, R., M. R. Allen, P. Friedlingstein, J. M. Gregory, G.C. Hegerl, G. A. Meehl, M. Meinshausen, J. M. Murphy, G.-K. Plattner, S. C. B. Raper, T. F. Stocker, P. A. Stott, H. Teng and T. M;. L. Wigley (2008): A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 21, 2651-2663.

Kenyon, J and G. C. Hegerl (2008): The Influence of ENSO, NAO and NPI on global temperature extremes. J. Climate 21, 3872-3889, doi 10.1175/2008JCLI2125.1

Allen, M. R., N. Andronova, B. Booth, S. Dessai, D. Frame, C. Forest, J. Gregory, G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, C. Piani, and D. Stainforth (2008): Observational constraints on climate sensitivity, chapter 29, in: Avoiding dangerous climate change, in press.

Zwiers, F. and G. Hegerl, 2008: Attributing cause and effect, News and Views, Nature 453, 296-297

Lavine, M., G. C. Hegerl and S. Lozier (2008): Discussion of Reified Bayesian Modelling and Inference for Physical Systems. J. Stat. Planning and Inference. In press.

Zhang, X., Francis Zwiers and G. Hegerl (2008): The Influence of data precision on the calculation of temperature percentile indices. Int. J of Climatology, in press.

Gutowski, W. J; G.C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. O. Mearns, R. J. Stouffer, P. J. Webster, M. F. Wehner and F. W. Zwiers (2008)): Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes. In Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, US Climate Change Science Program SAP 3.3, T. Karl et al., Eds. pp. 81-116.

Gillett, N., D. Stone, P. Stott and G. Hegerl (2008): Attribution of polar warming to human influences. Nature GeoSciences, 1, 750 - 754 (2008) .

Sang, H., A. E. Gelfand, C. Lennard, G. Hegerl and Bruce Hewitson (2008): Interpreting self-organizing maps through space-time models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2, 1194-1216

2007

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, M. Allen, W. T. Hyde, H. Pollack, J. Smerdon, E. Zorita (2007): Detection of human influence on a new 1500yr climate reconstruction, J. Climate, 20, 650-666.

EBM Simulations: aerosols greenhouse gases solar volcanism

Kharin, V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and G. C. Hegerl (2007): Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1417-1444, doi 10.1175/JCLI4066.1.

Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, N. Gillett, H. Lambert, S. Solomon, P. Stott and T. Nozawa (2007): Detection of Human Influence on 20th Century Precipitation Trends. Nature, 468, 448, 461-466

Forster, P., G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, V. Ramaswamy, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, P. Stott, and F. Zwiers, 2007: Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations. Nature Reports Climate Change, 4, 63-64.

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, W. T. Hyde and D. Frame (2007): Reply to “Uncertainties in Climate sensitivity. Nature 446, E2, doi 10.1038/nature05708.

Hegerl, G. C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. P Gillett, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, N. Nicholls, J. E. Penner and P. A, Stott: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: S. Solomon et al. (ed.) Climate Change 2007. The Fourth Scientific Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 663-745.

Forster, P., G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, V. Ramaswamy, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, P. Stott, and F. Zwiers, 2007: Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations. Nature Reports Climate Change, 4, 63-64.

2006

Hegerl G. C., T. Karl, M. Allen, N. Bindoff, N. Gillett, D. Karoly and F. Zwiers (2006): Climate Change detection and attribution: Beyond mean temperature signals. J. Climate, invited contribution through CLIVAR, J. Climate 19, 5088-5077 (to come out Oct. 15).

Juckes, M., M. Allen, K. Briffa, J. Esper, G. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. Osborn, S. Weber and E. Zorita (2006): Millennial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and Evaluation. Climate of the Past Discussions, Vol. 2, pp 1001-1049, 26-10-2006.

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, W. T. Hyde and D. Frame (2006): Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions of the last seven centuries, Nature, 440, doi:10.1038/nature04679.

selected publications prior to 2006

Hegerl, G. C. and N. L. Bindoff (2005): Warming the world’s oceans. Perspective in Science, 309, 254-255.

Allen M.R., Gillett N. P., Kettleborough J. A., Hegerl G.C., Schnur R., Stott P., Boer G., Covey C., Delworth T., Jones G.S., Mitchell J. F. B. and Barnett T. (2005): Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature. Reviews of Geophysics, accepted.

The International Ad Hoc Detection Group (T. Barnett, F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl and others) (2005): Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances. J Climate 16, 1291-1314.

Lee, T. K., Zwiers F., Hegerl, G. Zhang, X and Tsao M. (2005): A Bayesian approach to climate change detection and attribution. J. Climate, 18, 2429–2440.

Groisman, P., R. Knight, D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, G. Hegerl and Vy. N. Razuvaev (2005): Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. Climate, 18, 1326-1350.

Zhang, X., G. Hegerl, F. Zwiers and J. Kenyon (2005): Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature change. J. Climate, 18, 1641-1651.

Christidis, N., P.A. Stott, S. Brown, G. C. Hegerl and J. Caesar (2005): Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Let., 32, L20716, doi:10.1029/2005GL023885

Hegerl, G. C., F. Zwiers, S. Kharin and Peter Stott (2004): Detectability of anthropogenic changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. J. Climate, 17, 3683-3700.

Karoly D.J., J.F.B. Mitchell, M. R. Allen, G. Hegerl, J. Marengo and F. Zwiers (2003): Comment on Soon et al. (2001) ‘ Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties. Climate Research 24, 91-92.

Hegerl G. C., T. J. Crowley, S. K. Baum, K.-Y. Kim and W. T. Hyde (2003): Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature. Geophys,. Res. Lett 30(5). 1242. doi: 10.1029/2002GL016635

Crowley, T. C., S. K. Baum, K.-Y. Kim, G. C. Hegerl and W. T. Hyde (2003), Modeling Ocean Heat Content Changes During the Last Millennium . Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1932, doi:10.1029/2003GL017801.

Hegerl, G. C., G. Meehl, C. Covey, M. Latif, B. McAvaney and R. Stouffer, 2003b: 20C3M: CMIP collecting data from 20th century coupled model simulations. CLIVAR-Exchanges 26, available from http://www.clivar.org/.

Hegerl G.C. and Allen M. R. (2002): Origins of model-data discrepancies in optimal fingerprinting. J. Climate, 15, 1348-1356.

Gillett, N.P., Hegerl G.C., Allen M.R., Stott P.A. and Schnur R. (2002): Reconciling two approaches to the detection of anthropogenic influence on climate. J. Climate, 15, 326-329

Hegerl G. C. and Wallace, J. M. (2002): Influence of patterns of climate variability on the difference between satellite and surface temperature trends. J. Climate, 15, 2412-2428.

Gillett, N. P., Zwiers F. Z., Weaver A. J., Hegerl G. C., Allen M.R. and Stott P. A. (2002): Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Let. 29.1029/2002GL015836.

Hegerl G.C., Jones P.D. and Barnett T.P. (2001): Effect of observational sampling error on the detection of anthropogenic climate change. J. Climate, 14, 198-207

Mitchell J. F. B, Karoly D. J., Hegerl G.C., Zwiers F. W., Allen, M. R. and Marengo J. (2001): Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes . In: J. T. Houghton et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2000. The Third Scientific Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 695-738.

Stouffer R. J., Hegerl G. C. and Tett S. F. B. (2000): A comparison of Surface Air Temperature Variability in Three 1000-Year coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Integrations. J. Climate, 13, 513-537.

Hegerl G. C., Stott P., Allen M., Mitchell J. F. B., Tett S. F. B. and Cubasch U. (2000): Detection and attribution of climate change: Sensitivity of results to climate model differences. Climate Dynamics, 16, 737-754.

Thompson D. W. J., Wallace J.M. and Hegerl G. C. (2000): Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part II Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036.

Chang P., Saravanan R. Ji L., Hegerl G.C. (2000): The Effect of Local Sea-Surface Temperature on Atmospheric Circulation over the Tropical Atlantic Sector. J. Climate, 13, 2195-2216.

Gillett, N. P., Hegerl G. C., Allen M. R., Stott P. A. (2000): Implications of changes in the Northern Hemispheric circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 993-996.

Barnett T. P., Hegerl G.C., Knutson T. and Tett S.F.B. (2000): Uncertainty Levels in Predicted Patterns of Anthropogenic Climate Change. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 15 525-15 542.

Barnett T. P., Hasselmann K., Chelliah M., Delworth, T., Hegerl G. C., Jones P. D., Rasmusson E., Roeckner, E., Ropelewski C., Santer B. D. and Tett, S.F.B. (1999): Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 80, 2631-2660.

Jones P.D. and Hegerl, G. C. (1998): Comparisons of two methods of removing anthropogenic-related variability from the near-surface observational temperature field. J. Geophysical. Res., 103, 13777-13786.

Hegerl G. C. (1998): The past as a guide to the future. Nature 392, 758-759.

Hegerl G.C. and North G. R. (1997): Comparison of statistically optimal approaches to detecting anthropogenic climate change. J. Climate, 10, 1125-1133.

von Storch J., Kharim V., Cubasch U., Hegerl G.C., Schriever D., von Storch H. and Zorita E. (1997): A 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model. J. Climate, 10, 1525-1543.

Cubasch U., Voss R., Hegerl G.C.,Waszkewitz J. and Crowley T. J. (1997): Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 13, 757-767.

Hegerl G. C., Hasselmann K., Cubasch U., Mitchell, J. F. B., Roeckner E., Voss, R. and Waszkewitz J. (1997): Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change. Climate Dynamics, 13, 613-634.

Hegerl G.C., v. Storch H., Hasselmann K., Santer B. D., Cubasch U. and Jones P. D. (1996): Detecting greenhouse gas induced Climate Change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Climate 9, 2281-2306.

Cubasch U., Hegerl G. C., Hellbach A., Höck H., Mikolajewicz U., Santer B. D. and Voss R. (1995): A Climate Change simulation starting from 1935, Climate Dynamics, 11: 71-84.

Cubasch U., Waszkewitz J., Hegerl G. C. and Perlwitz, J. (1995): Regional climate changes as simulated in time-slice experiments. Climatic Change 31: 273-304.

Schmidbauer O., Casacuberta F., Castro M. J., Höge H., Hegerl G. C., Sanchez J. A., Zlokarnik I. (1993): Articulatory Representation and Speech Technology, Language and Speech, 36 (2,3): 331-351.

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